Reliance Comunication

Here is also a good example of resistance becoming support.

By this chart we can say that 405~415 will act as a good support and the indications are bullish till the time 410 is broken.

Nifty Reacting

Asking Fibonacci :

Nifty have cracked the trend line as proposed earlier in
If we consider that Nifty will react as per the short term impulse then the possible levels which
can be worked out as :
High : 4245
Low : 2595
Rise = High - Low = 1650,
Using Fibonacci ratios 0.38, 0.5, 0.618 you can have
1650 x 0.38 = 627 (L1)
1650 x 0.50 = 825 (L2)
1650 x 0.618 = 1019.7 (L3)

So now the levels are High - L1, High - L2, High - L3
Level 1 : 4245 - 627 = 3618
Level 2 : 4245 - 825 = 3420
Level 3 : 4245 - 1019.7 = 3225.3

Checking Charts:

Other option is to look for the even longer term trend line if it exist. Now below is the 3 year Nifty plotted on the log scale (For such a longer period I always prefer log scale it makes lot of sense).
Here there seems to be good channel forming.

Now this long term chart clearly states that if Nifty do not breach the bottom trend-line the Long term bullish out look stays intact. Hence 3200~3250 level becomes very critical.

SUZLON at support on trendline

As you can see the Suzlon have fallen to the long term trendline. I expect it to take support nr 1000 level. Stop Loss of 950~975 can be considered.

Bharti Airtel Analysis . .

On request of one of my friend I have analyzed this chart. Here first thing that comes to mind is that the up trend is clear as there is no breach of up-trendline and the stock is making higher bottoms.

next thing that comes is the days with more than avg volume have been white candles (ie there was buying on those days).

There is also seen that there is older resistance (~700) which was broken with a greater volume. Now that resistance line have become support and this is another good sign of bullish phase.

But there is only one concern here that the last volume pick came at the black candle while it took support at 710 (708.1 to be accurate) level. This makes 705~710 level a critical support.

Nifty Head & Shoulder

The signs here do not really look bullish. There could be probable Head and shoulder formation in the making. The clear Bearish call can be given only on break of the Neckline trendline at @3950.
While on the On Balance Volume there is clear dent seen. Which I consider as caution for bulls.

While the mid term trendline suggest that the 4000 Level is critical.
In most probable case 4025 would act as a good support.
Hence the bearish outlook can be

Bihar Sponge (Hi Risk Hi Return)

For a change Bihar stock. Here its a good case of breakout with too much of volumes. Hence you can see the abrupt rise in the On Balance Volume. Also it is good case of resistance becoming support which is again a very bullish sign. StopLoss of 9.8 to be maintained.

A penny stock with buying interest hence has high risk high return profile.

Investment upto 10~15 % of your portfolio only recommended.

425 strong Support for TISCO

As per my previous POST TISCO has taken support nr 425 now there is possibility that TISCO might reach 520 IF it do not break 425.
Also if there is this double bottom possibility at 425.

One can enter TISCO with SL of 424.

Breakout in SEAMEC, I am late. . . !

South East Asia Marine Engineering & Construction Ltd. had given a breakout on 14th Feb. while I am late to identify it the target from this chart can be given as 235 and its already
222. This post hence becomes more of an academics than a trading call.

This is a stock worth having your radar fixed to.

Disa India (High Risk High return)

This is one stock which I put in high risk high return hence one is not advised to put more than 10% of their portfolio value in it. As can be clearly seen Disa India has taken support at @1240 level and is likely to move upto 1500.

TISCO nearing Support

If TISCO manages to stay above the green line there is some hope of it to recover. Hence support near 435~440 level can be expected.

Importance of Stop Loss

This is from my old post at "SmellTheCheese" google group.

I thought of making one study. Where in a hypothetical investor performs the trade using any decision making tool (SYSTEM).

Here I have defined few things
Strike rate : number of profitable decision to total number of decision.
Stop Loss : Avg % of investment lost while decision goes wrong (Assumed 5%)
Avg Profit : Avg % of profit earned while decision goes right. (Assumed 10%)

I have tried few cases where initial investment is 10000/- strike rate is 1 of 4, 1 of 3, 1 of 2, 2 of 3 and 3 of 4 and last case is that the investor learns few tricks and then he matures so that his strike rate improves.

The results are as under after 56 trades:
1 of 4 10000 becomes 4404
1 of 3 10000 becomes 9167
1 of 2 10000 becomes 34297
2 of 3 10000 becomes 128315
3 of 4 10000 becomes 267069
Maturing investor makes 34297

You can play with following xls file to simulate different conditions.


So easy to find resistance

Just draw a RED line joining all tops. . . . !

Here is the Ashok Leyland chart it is clear that knocking off @50 level is tough. Hence below 50Ashok Leyland is bearish. While above 50 Ashok Leyland is bullish. I would buy this stock only if it close above 51. (Just in case my lines are not straight . . !)

MRPL has strong buying interest

Well I am late in identifying the breakout but on the whole its clear that this is the counter which has a buying interest. Following are my reasons:

1. Breakout of the falling (RED) trend-line with heavy volume.
2. Increase in On Balance Volume.

Since it has reacted to 50% level after the move from 39 to 48
Delta = 48 - 39 = 9
50% Delta = 4.5
Support level = 39+4.5 = 43.5

I expect MRPL to have Show some strength.
Moser Baer is a case case study I had taken it has
found resistance as seen. Still watching it if there
is further breakout or a correction from here.

Suzlon have cracked the support of @1200 with handsome volume
the reactive rise has also only brought it to the same resistance
level of (-)1200 level. It is clear indication that this stock is in for
a fall of @120 Rs Minimum.